The U.S. Election…

Some Good News???

There is more Good News in the World than Bad

Like many others around the world, Ted was watching the U.S. election. It was, however, 11 p.m., time to go to bed. While Harris was behind in the election, she still seemed to be in a good position in the seven key states.

He awoke about 7 hours later, did some exercises, showered and came down for breakfast. He was not prepared for the news. Trump had won.

His first reaction was one of disbelief, then shock, then fear. How could 70 million people vote for an aging Trump – a liar, convicted felon, and misogynist? A person who had gone bankrupt 6 times. A racist, sexist, lover of autocrats and overall a despicable human being who many Republicans and Democrats alike believed was unfit to be the President of the United States.

Then he started to have some worries: the possible mass deportation of so-called undocumented immigrants, the arrest or firing of those who opposed him, his relationship with and admiration of the world’s strongmen like Putin and Xi Jing Pin, who could easily manipulate him by flattery, the dismissal of the law suits against him which effectively told the world he could do whatever he wanted, and his climate denial views. The possible henchmen he would appoint to the cabinet and the way he treated many women.

By the time he had finished his coffee he was angry and a nervous wreck. He decided not to watch TV any longer but turned on his computer.

There were stories and more details about the election, then some emails started to come in. A few from some U.S. friends who declared his election is, “Not who we are.”

A newsletter from Bill McKibben, an American climate advocate who said among other things, “The FDR era had come to an end and so we will need to build the next new thing under the sun.”

He went on to say while the oil companies may be given carte blanche, the way forward to our energy needs is from the sun. In fact, it is already happening because the lower prices of solar energy would dictate, not the oil companies.

There was much talk about why and how his election happened.

To his surprise, the stock market was up.

Later that day, Kamala Harris came on TV and gave an upbeat speech. While she conceded the election, she did not concede what drove her campaign: the values that she and the Democrats stood for.

“We will keep fighting. We will never give up. It is not time to throw up your hands. Instead, roll up your sleeves and continue to work for justice and what is good.”

This seemed to calm Ted down but he was still angry.

Over the next few days, many people gave their opinions of what went wrong for the Democrats and right for the Republicans. They included but were not limited to:

• Biden waited too long before he dropped out of the race.
• Harris’ inability to separate herself from the shortcomings of the administration and particularly immigration issues.
• Not being able to communicate the economy was strong and inflation was largely the result of COVID, something the government had no control over.
• The Economist Magazine called the U.S. economy the strongest in the world. Instead, they believed Trump’s lies. Many, though, had legitimate concerns as prices had jumped significantly, leaving many angry, feeling helpless. The country was going in the wrong direction and the Democrats did not listen to or understand the voters.
• The Democrats continually saying people were stupid to believe and follow Trump. This raised the ire of many voters.
• Americans did not want a woman President, particularly a black one.
• The perception Harris did not have it, but Trump convincing people even without explaining how he would fix everything.
• It is a fact that people in virtually every country in the developed world were angry and their governments were either in trouble or had been tossed out, and the U.S. was just joining the rest of the world.
  Trump had created a base who believed in him and knew what to expect, making all of his misdeeds insignificant, and turned his legal battles into a positive that he was a victim.
• Part of the media communicated Trump was a monster. Other parts of the media said Harris was worse.

The above is not the whole story but all were a factor. The reality is we have Trump for the next four years.

THE IMPACT

We will not know the impact for some time, however, the current consensus includes:

• Tariffs will increase inflation, and probably not restore many jobs.
  The so- called undocumented immigrants being deported will add to the labour shortage and inflation.
• For women, a further denial of their rights, including not having a say over the right to make decisions about their own bodies.
• Further erosion of the principle of the rule of law. Trump does whatever he wants without accountability and people will follow his lead.
• There could be a major exodus, both because of the deportation of immigrants, but also others just not wanting to live under Trump.
  On the International scene, there will be negative implications on climate change and international treaties.
• Probable decrease in support for the Ukraine, support for Israel to annex settlement areas and a general move to becoming more isolationist, and the perception you cannot count on the Americans anymore.

THE GOOD NEWS!

Is there really any good news? Or is it just wishful thinking? And if so, what is it? And will Trump really be able to do what he says he will do ?

Firstly, it should be remembered that Trump was elected fairly through a democratic process and the transition will likely be orderly and peaceful, unlike what was likely to happen had the vote gone the other way.

Secondly, the election is good news for the 49% of Americans who voted for him because they did not like the direction in which America was moving.

His slight edge over Harris in the popular vote, however, was less than Biden had over Trump in 2020 and much smaller than the vast majority of presidential elections going back 200 years.

Of the 150 million votes cast in the election, a switch of only 700,000 votes in the seven key states would have totally changed the outcome.

Furthermore, not everyone who voted for him agreed with all of his views and policies. They just wanted change. This could result in considerable resistance, especially with his most radical positions. This will not give him the sweeping mandate he thinks and says he has. This could result in strong opposition to much of what he plans to do.

Much of what he proposes crosses over into state and municipal territory. States and cities have already taken action to protect their people’s interests in many ways.

Countries too are moving to Trump-proof, Canada included. In fact, there could be some benefits.

While Republicans have control of the Senate and maybe the house, both are small and many moderate Republicans do not agree with all of his pronouncements. Many believe his bark is worse than his bite.

There has already been a push back from some Republicans on some of his cabinet proposals such as Health, Justice, Defense and Intelligence. There has also been increasing opposition from many key people who work in those departments.

Some believe and hope his new Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, a woman, may be able to fill his mouth with soap from time to time, and be a check on his impulses.

Some believe Trump will actually not be the de facto president and hand the key roles off to some of the key people he is appointing like Stephen Miller and Tom Homan. This may not be good news.

Some are calling Elon Musk, the de facto V.P. Musk has a way of alienating people and changing his mind if he does not gain everything he wants. His proposals to cut 2 trillion from federal costs can only be done by canceling many programmes which benefit many of the Republican constituents. They won’t like this.

His plan to implement tariffs is not the panacea he purports and most economists predict it will be inflationary.

At least one major U.S. company owner has said if the tariffs are implemented against China he will move his production from China to Cambodia or Thailand. Other countries will likely counter with their own set of tariffs.

Exxon’s President, Darren Woods has said Trump should keep the U.S. in the Paris Climate pact and Trump will not be able to unleash new energy production. He urged the Trump Administration to avoid making turbulent climate policy swing.

Since expelling immigrants will dilute the work force and cause labor shortages and inflation, there will likely be a major push back.

While the U.S. needs better immigration rules, few believe the proposed mass deportations will happen.

Trump needs to move quickly as the next Senate and congressional elections are in two years. Historically the mid-terms work against the incumbent party.

Given the closeness in the House and Senate, this could be a big check on what he can do.

In the end, he needs to continue to garner public support.

And better still, people will continue to seek justice and do good things as Kamala Harris outlined in her speech, and as people have always done.

In fact, in the last week alone Ted had received requests for support through his Rotary channels for an ambulance in Burundi, a school in Sierra Leone, a new fire trailer designed in part by Indigenous Peoples, to provide water and fire fighting equipment to Indigenous Peoples in remote communities.

There was also an announcement of 9 wealthy families in Canada donating $405 million for climate change. The winner of the Nobel Prize in Physics, Canadian Geoffrey Hinton the father of AI, gave half of his award ($375,000) to Water First, an Indigenous water project, and another Canadian has given $200 million to C.A.M.H. for mental health.

These GOOD HAPPENINGS will continue. In fact, they could increase because of or in spite of Mr. Trump. What can YOU do?

In his most recent newsletter Bill McKibben cited the serenity prayer:

God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.

I predict many Americans will do just that and we Canadians have the opportunity too.

Perhaps as McKibben pointed out, WE will find a better way under the sun.

The real sun will keep coming out too.

Not everything Trump does is bad. The world has seen worse crises and he will not be forever. He is an aging 78.

The phone rang. It was their daughter and her family calling for their weekly conversation.

Till next time,

Chris Snyder…still a climate optimist

Email: snyderchris74@gmail.com  

Stories of Good News and Hope: http://chrissnyder.ca/